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    Spain’s estate agencies anticipate further price corrections as sales and rental activity increases

    Real Estate Sensitivity Survey

    Agency forecasts for 2021 highlighted in the Real Estate Sensitivity Survey (ESI) published by Idealista

    Estate agencies in Valencia – mirroring others across Spain – expect a recovery in the sector to continue into early 2021 following news of vaccine roll-out programmes, despite the uncertainty of the current economic environment, and the announcement of a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic. The Real Estate Sensitivity Survey (ESI) carried out by property website Idealista (the company that publishes this newsletter) indicates that prices will continue to adjust in both the sales and rental markets.

    Forecasts made by Spanish estate agencies for early 2021 predict a continuation of the upward trend witnessed towards the end of 2020.

    Recovery is expected to take the form of positive news both in terms of increased sales and rental business, as well as a rise in new clients.

    Prices may well be the only sticking point here, with agencies stressing that adjustments will continue to be made in both markets, in light of ongoing economic headwinds and uncertainty as to how the pandemic will evolve.

    Agencies, in general, remain conservative with regard to changes in sale prices and rental income.

    37% of those surveyed believe that sale prices in their areas will continue to fall, although the majority see current prices being maintained.

    Meanwhile, 34% say that rents will fall for another quarter, in contrast to 55% who expect them to remain where they are.

    In terms of completed business, sales and rental offer differing pictures. For the buying and selling market, more than half of the agencies surveyed (52%) expect to sell more houses in the next quarter, compared to 26% who will maintain the same activity as the previous quarter, and 21% who anticipate selling fewer homes.

    The activity appears set to remain stable in the rental market despite the significant movement of supply and demand for flats it is currently experiencing.

    36% of the agencies surveyed expect to rent the same number of houses, compared to 33% who anticipate closing more deals.

    18% believe that their rental activity will decrease. This better-than-expected outlook by estate agencies across both markets has placed the Sales Index above the Rental Index for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2019.

    The Sales ESI continues the upward trend that it recovered at the end of last year, improving almost five points from 44.9 points in December 2020, to 49.7 points in January 2021, closer to expected levels.

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